The Anaheim Ducks are on a budding winning streak that is threatened to end against the Penguins.
Penguins last in the East
October has been a rough ride for the Pittsburgh Penguins, who lie at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. More than 52 percent share of expected goals has not materialized into results at all as hoped, with only three wins in the first eight games. Scoring has been mediocre considering the number of chances. Especially the power play units still have lots of work to do with a 10% efficiency so far.
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The weirdest thing about the Pengs’ early-season sluggishness is that their top players have performed as expected. Sidney Crosby, Evgeny Malkin and Jake Guentzel have each scored nine points already. At the same time, the bottom six has hardly produced any offensive power, and Erik Karlsson has yet to make the kind of major impact expected of him. Still, game events show some promise, and it should only be a matter of time until we see the Penguins beginning to soar in the standings.
Away tour major success for the Ducks
For the Anaheim Ducks, this will be the last game of the away tour before returning to the warmth of California. The last few games have gone beyond expectations, with three wins in a row that have allowed the Ducks to move into the top 8 in the Western Conference. What’s more, they won all three games without the injured Jamie Drysdale, who would normally be a key piece in Anaheim’s defense.
Frank Vatrano, who scored 22 goals last season, is rocking the scoring charts after finishing eight goals in as many games. Biggest star Trevor Zegras has been plagued by inefficiency, but with Zegras on the ice, Anaheim has amassed more than a 60 percent slice of expected goals at 5-on-5. As a team, the Ducks have been underdogs as evidenced by their xG of around 46 percent when looking at all game situations.
Penguins are big favorites
In this game, it’s good to forget about the standings for a moment and look instead at the advanced statistics of the teams and the pre-season expectations. By both measures, the Penguins are clearly the better team, and their modest start to the season can mostly be explained by chance. The teams are on completely opposite forms which is reflected in attractive odds on the Penguins’ side.
Unibet has the Penguins as -155 favorites in regulation, while I would say around -170 sounds more reasonable. We clearly have a value bet on the home side, even with all the adversity Pittsburgh’s offense has faced so far.
Tip: Pittsburgh Penguins in regulation @ -155
Units: 5/10
The match will start on 10/30/2023 at 7 PM EDT.
The odds are from the time of publication of this article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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