The Los Angeles Kings’ depth and five-on-five dominance bring significant advantages against the Arizona Coyotes.
Decent start in Arizona
The Arizona Coyotes are off to a decent start with three wins and three losses, good enough for fifth place in the Central Division. Only an average of five goals per 60 minutes have been scored in the Coyotes’ games, although in terms of expected goals, the red light should have flashed more often at both ends. Karel Vejmelka, who has been rock solid so far, has already saved four goals above expected. As long as Vejmelka stays hot and scoring remains efficient, the Coyotes have a fighting chance.
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Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz are in key roles again this season, and both have started strong with seven points. With five assists, Logan Cooley is also an interesting name who could emerge as Connor Bedard’s number one contender in the race for Calder Trophy. Jason Zucker is out for sure, while Lawson Crouse may also be missing from the offense with illness.
Kings dominate possession
In Los Angeles, the first few weeks have raised expectations for the season. The Kings have been the best NHL team in the first half of the season based on expected goal share (58.1%). Still, they also have three wins in six games, same as Arizona. Unlike their opponents, the Kings have struggled with awful goaltending. Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley have collectively allowed a goal per game extra when looking at expected goals in all situations.
Luckily for the Kings, the team is stacked enough to pick up wins here and there even with horrendous goaltending. After six games, the lineup has as many as 13 players with at least three points. As expected, Kevin Fiala (1 goal and 8 assists) and Anze Kopitar (3 goals and 4 assists) have led the orchestra along with Trevor Moore who’s sitting on five goals.
Kings slightly underrated favorite
The pre-game expectation is puck control for the away team, which the Coyotes will be able to disrupt mainly with their top two lines. The goalie matchup is an exciting element. If we were to only look at early-season stats, it would be an elite goalie (Vejmelka) against one of the worst goalies in the league (the Kings’ starter). In reality, the difference is not that big, and in both cases we should see some regression towards the medium during the season. In other words, neither team is likely to witness such extreme goaltending stats over a large sample.
Los Angeles is a much deeper and better team in terms of puck possession, so they are clearly favorites away from home as well. The away win in regulation should cash in around 48 percent of the time. Unibet offers odds of +120 for the Kings, high enough for a bet of three units.
Tip: Los Angeles Kings in regulation @ +120
Units: 3/10
The match will start on 10/27/2023 at 10 PM EDT.
The odds are from the time of publication of this article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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