Florida has been stacking up win after another lately. There’s a high chance that trend will continue as the Panthers end their road trip in St. Louis against the mediocre Blues.
Blues heading for a drop
As the halfway point of the regular season approaches, the St. Louis Blues are still one of the teams fighting for a playoff berth in the West. Compared to the expectations for the season, the current situation is positive. Few expected miracles from this team at the start of the season. Still, the Blues are likely to end up in the worst-case position, narrowly missing out on the play-offs.
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Solid goaltending is the primary reason why this team still has a fighting chance. Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have formed a functional tandem that has brought an average advantage of more than 0.2 goals compared to expected goals. One of the least hyped top lines in the league has also been effective, led by Robert Thomas who has 41 points in 38 games.
Team statistics tell the truth about what usually happens in Blues matches. St. Louis has one of the league’s worst 5v5 xG numbers with 45.36%. The expected goal share in all game situations is also a poor 47.81%. In this game, too, the focus will likely be on the home team’s end of the ice. As if this wasn’t a tough matchup already, the Blues are entering it without Justin Faulk, one of their best puck-moving defensemen.
Panthers bulldozing in the East
The Florida Panthers are one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now. The Panthers come to St. Louis on a seven-game winning streak. During that streak, Florida has beaten Rangers, Vegas twice, and most recently Colorado on Saturday. Boston, the top team in the Eastern Conference, is only three points away.
Last season’s Cup finalist has emerged as one of the top teams in the league over the past calendar year. In terms of expected goals, the Panthers have elite statistics both 5v5 (54.80%) and in all strengths (56.83%). Even such clear domination would not be necessary for this team. Sergei Bobrovsky, who has rediscovered his game, usually brings the advantage in goal. On top of that, the offense has the right mix of individual skill and more defensive forwards.
With an average of 5.6 goals seen per game, the Panthers have played some of the lowest-scoring games this season. There is still lurking potential in overs with this offense. This season, Sam Reinhart has been the biggest star with his 28 goals, tied for second in the league. Reinhart is just five goals away from his record which he set two seasons ago.
Value in Florida and overs
The standings give a slightly distorted picture of these two teams. The Blues have been lucky to reach their current position, and I personally don’t see them as a team advancing to the playoffs. Florida, on the other hand, is basically a top 5 team in the league and in top form. The Panthers have about a 54 percent chance of winning in regular time. Unibet has -106 available which is solid for two units.
Our main bet today is on over 6.5 with OT and shootout included. This pick will also cash around 54 times out of a hundred, while Unibet has as much as +102 available. That is a tasty price indeed for some high-scoring action.
Tip: Florida Panthers in regulation @ -106
Units: 2/10
Tip: Over 6.5 (Incl. OT & Shootout) @ +102
Units: 4/10
The match will start on 1/9/2024 at 8:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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