The Lightning have woken up to make a strong push for the playoffs. The Coyotes, playing their third game in four days, are in for a tough evening at Amalie Arena.
Bolts finding their groove
January has been by far the best month for the Tampa Bay Lightning. The previous ten games have brought seven wins on the board, meaning that the Bolts will be in playoff positions heading into the All-Star break.
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In many ways, Tampa’s resurgence is terrible news for the other teams fighting for the playoffs in the East. Tampa still has individual talent from their championship years. That will give them a decisive advantage at the end of the regular season if they must make a push to get in. Nikita Kucherov has scored a ridiculous 19 points in the last ten games. Of the other top names, Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman and Brayden Point have chipped in with at least a point per game over the same sample.
On top of that, Tampa’s numbers also look good on the expected goals side. The Bolts have amassed 55.3 percent of expected goals in all situations in their last ten games. Injuries to Mikhail Sergachyov and Erik Cernak on defense haven’t slowed down the Lightning’s dominance. Both are expected to be sidelined against Arizona and return to the lineup after the break.
A downbeat January in Arizona
Arizona’s recent month has included a couple of important wins over key rivals, Nashville and Minnesota. Still, it’s been a disappointing January with just four wins and seven losses. Last night, the Panthers took care of business already in the opening period, eventually winning the Coyotes by a clear score of 6-2. Arizona also played on Monday, so the game against Tampa will be their third in four days.
There is also positive news coming from the desert. One of the Coyotes’ top forwards, Nick Schmaltz, returned to the lineup in Florida, leaving only Mathew Dumba, Barrett Hayton, and Troy Stecher on the sidelines. Making the playoffs is still realistic, which is rare in Arizona at this time of year. The Coyotes are likely to be a more dangerous team next year, with not only Matias Maccelli but also Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther starting to play the top line roles.
Tampa in a dominant position at home
Tampa’s rest advantage plays a significant role today, especially since the Lightning are clearly the better team in terms of baseline. In theory, this is a game that Andrei Vasilevskiy could skip before Saturday’s more important game against New Jersey. However, Vasilevskiy was rested last weekend and is known as a goalkeeper who plays a lot. Therefore, Jonas Johansson’s start would be a surprise at this point. The visitors will probably start with Connor Ingram, who was rested yesterday and has been clearly the better of Arizona’s goalkeepers this season.
There is significant edge in Tampa across the board, and all you have to decide is your personal risk preference. The best compromise between high expected value and high odds is in Tampa’s win in regulation, offered at -127. That is simply superb value compared to the -160 I’d offer them. We can almost go for a max bet with this pick.
Tip: Tampa Bay Lightning in regulation @ -127
Units: 9/10
The match will start on 1/25/2024 at 7:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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