In the battle between first and last, the odds point towards backing the underdog.
Sens better than their standing
The Senators snapped their three-game losing streak with Saturday’s home win over the Kraken. Ottawa has been stuck at the bottom of the Eastern Conference in recent weeks. However, we shouldn’t stare at the standings too much, as the Senators have played 6 to 7 games less than the teams above them. As an amusing detail, the Senators have a positive goal difference, even though they are last in the conference. This team is clearly better than their standing suggests.
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Of the key players, Vladimir Tarasenko is still looking for his best form. Known as a skilled shooter, Tarasenko only has three goals to his name. There are still a few names missing, although number one D-man Thomas Chabot already returned to the lineup. In terms of potential, the most unfortunate is Ridly Greig’s injury, which will keep the center sidelined for a long time to come.
Rangers find ways to win
The Rangers have been one of the most interesting and entertaining teams this fall. They have sealed one win after another and in different ways. The Rangers have found ways to win both low-scoring games and games with scoring chances traded from end to end. Backup Jonathan Quick’s strong start to the season has allowed the Rangers to rest Igor Shestyorkin. In this game, Shestyorkin should get the nod, as there is a break of a few days ahead before the next game.
In terms of expected goals, the Rangers have only been average. Then again, that will be enough for this team if the core players continue the kind of performances we’ve seen. Artemi Panarin’s scoring pace shows no signs of slowing down. On the contrary, he’s well on his way to his first 100+ points in a season. Chris Kreider, a specialist of unspectacular goals, is on pace for his second fifty-goal campaign. On defense, Adam Fox has once again been among the best in his position. The injuries of Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko will not have a significant impact on the Rangers’ performance level.
Small bet for Ottawa
The Rangers deserve to be favorites given the team’s high-quality roster. Personally, I disagree slightly with the oddsmakers on how big the favorite position should be. Ottawa has potential for better results than we have seen. I’d say something like +165 would be breakeven for Ottawa’s win in regulation. Unibet offers +185, so we have a clear investment in the home team.
There is more uncertainty than usual about Ottawa’s performance, but the odds adequately cover that risk. I recommend betting small now and leaving some leverage for game day. The teams are at the extremes of the standings. Therefore, I expect the Rangers to get the most of game day turnover. There may well be even better odds available for Ottawa on Tuesday.
Tip: Ottawa Senators in regulation @ +185
Units: 3/10
The match will start on 12/5/2023 at 7:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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