Ottawa has yet to make the breakthrough everyone’s expecting of them. Grinding through a tough stretch of the schedule, the Sens are in for a busy night in Dallas.
Dallas is a complete team
The Dallas Stars, currently third in the Central Division, have yet to get off to their best form. There have been fluctuations in performances, and we have seen crushing results both ways. Game-wise, however, the Stars have taken their place as one of the best teams in the league. Expected goals in 5v5 (53.84%) and in all situations (52.28%) indicate quality work in the big picture.
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The team structure is in place at all positions. This Texas cocktail has an almost ideal mix of top players and depth in case of injuries or dry spells for core players.
In fact, the only question mark belongs to the veteran department. Many of the Stars’ regular players are well into their thirties, and Joe Pavelski is already 39 years old. Will the performance level of experienced players remain high throughout the long season?
Tough schedule weighs down on Ottawa
Many have been waiting for a breakthrough season for Ottawa Senators. Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan, as the Senators are last in their division and in the entire Eastern Conference. In terms of point average, their ranking would go up a notch or two. In any case, it’s been a disappointing first couple months to the season.
After all, there is potential in the team. Just look at the Sens’ expected goals in all situations at 52.59%. That figure is even slightly better than that of the Stars, one of the biggest Cup favorites. Much to the Senators’ chagrin, all variance-prone events have turned against the team.
Both the PP (17.2%) and PK (73.4%) are game situations where the Sens are just burning points against typical opponents. Thomas Chabot’s still-pending recovery isn’t exactly helping the inefficient power play unit in finding its groove.
Goaltending problems are another evident issue. Joonas Korpisalo, who has been the better option, played yesterday, so backup Anton Forsberg will probably start in Dallas. For Ottawa, the game is their third in four days, so it’s easy to predict a busy evening for the Senators goaltender.
Bets for Dallas and over
Dallas is clearly the better team, in addition to which the home and rest advantage go to Dallas. The set-up is tough for Ottawa, and the Sens should be happy if they even get a point from this one. There is value both in teams and in totals.
The Stars look good on several markets. This match has potential for a blowout, but Unibet is still offering interesting odds for the Stars’ handicaps. Stars -1.5 is +128, while I would take anything higher than +110 for them to win by at least a pair. You will find those odds under the 3-way puck line, also known as the European Handicap.
To top it off, we’ll add another bet for over 6.5, overtime and shootout included. There’s a beautiful even number of +100 available for this pick. My break-even line is at -118, so this is another clear selection. Three units for Dallas and four units for the over equals an exciting match for Friday night.
Tip: Dallas Stars -1.5 @ +128
Units: 3/10
Tip: Over 6.5 Inc. OT & Shootout @ +100
Units: 4/10
The match will start on 12/15/2023 at 8:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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