Both the Predators and the Flyers have enjoyed a solid season so far. Goals should be hard to come by in a battle between two top goalies.
Saros is himself again
The Nashville Predators are looking better and better as we approach the end of 2023. In the last 15 games, the Preds have picked up ten wins to climb into the final playoff positions in the conference.
The successful period has coincided with goaltending returning to its normal form. Juuse Saros has looked like himself again in recent weeks, providing his team with quality work night after night.
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There were positive signs in the air even before Saros rediscovered his momentum. The Predators have become a regular in the better half of expected goals, occasionally even taking over the top spots. However, there is a lack of elite forwards behind Filip Forsberg. As a result, the Preds must scrape together wins primarily through low-scoring defensive battles.
Flyers taking major steps forward
The Philadelphia Flyers have been one of the biggest positive surprises of the fall. The Flyers are currently on a four-game winning streak and third in the brutally competitive Metropolitan Division.
On top of that, the team has won games deservedly in relation to game flow. The Flyers are a top-5 team in expected goals, both 5v5 and all situations combined. That’s a huge change compared to last season when the Flyers were already out of playoff speculation by this time.
Like the Preds, the Flyers base their success on turning low-scoring games into wins. The Flyers have played some of the lowest-scoring games this season, averaging just 5.6 goals per game. Goaltending is a strength on this side as well, with Carter Hart having another strong season.
Expecting a low-scoring game
Both teams enter the match from a good lineup situation without significant absences. It’s likely going to be a battle between the No. 1 goalies, meaning a quality matchup between the pipes. Neither team is much of an over team anyway, so the goal expectations are exceptionally low for today’s NHL.
For under 5.5, I would accept anything higher than +105. Fortunately, there’s +114 available on Unibet. This pick makes a lot of sense based on team profiles, but let’s also remember that we only have less than a 4 percent edge from an EV standpoint. Therefore, I suggest only a modest bet size of two units.
Tip: Under 5.5 @ +114
Units: 2/10
The match will start on 12/12/2023 at 8:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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