The early-season goal-scoring sprees have altered the total line for a favorable bet on under.
High-scoring games about to end
The Minnesota Wild came out of October somewhat unscathed, although injury problems began before the first game. First Jared Spurgeon dropped out of the lineup with injury. Then after a couple of games, Matt Boldy, an integral part of their mediocre offense, was also injured. Spurgeon returned to practice on Wednesday, and Boldy is expected to return to the lineup as early as this match. The Wild’s modest record of 3-4-2 is therefore likely to improve sooner rather than later.
Minnesota’s games have had an uncharacteristically high number of goals early in the season. An average of nearly 7.6 goals is not at all what we have seen from the Wild in recent years. On the offensive end, the Wild have scored an average of +0.4 goals over expected. The real reason for this team constantly covering their total line is in their own end.
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Minnesota has been mid-table in terms of expected goals conceded, but one of the weakest in the league in goaltender performance. Jonas Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury have a nasty -3.99 and -2.06 goals saved above average, respectively. Both goalkeepers are clearly better than their current numbers. Minnesota’s goaltending should improve in the coming weeks and months.
The Devils providing entertainment
The New Jersey Devils have picked up four wins from their previous five games. One of the Eastern Conference favorites, they have also rocked the most entertaining hockey of the season so far. There’s plenty of action at both ends of the iceas Lindy Ruff’s protégés spread the good news of offensive hockey.
Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt have both picked up their scoring pace from last season. Nico Hischier had a disappointing October with the Swiss recording just two goals in the points column. Hischier received a contact to his head against Boston and the center’s situation is being monitored on day-to-day basis.
Going for solid goalie performances
The Devils are one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, while the Wild are more prone to grinding out low-scoring games. The early-season plethora of goals won’t last forever in the Wild’s games. Their goalies will eventually start catching pucks at least at a somewhat normal level. The Devils are likely to play this style of hockey throughout the season, but this game may still end up on the low-scoring side due to Minnesota’s team profile.
The total line has moved from the early odds, but there is still clear value in backing the under. Anything above +140 for under 5.5 would do for me, and Unibet’s +163 is vastly better than that. A bet of four units is in place, hoping for some solid goalie performances.
Tip: Under 5.5 @ +163
Units: 4/10
The match will be played on 11/2/2023 at 7 PM EDT.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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