Two offensively talented teams make for an entertaining Saturday matinee.
The Stars are versatile
Dallas lost their lead at the end of Thursday’s round and eventually lost in overtime. That was the second loss within a week against Calgary. Looking at the big picture, the fall has gone nicely with the Stars holding the second place in the Central Division. They are one of the top teams in the West and rank in the top quarter of the league in terms of expected goals.
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When it comes to the Stars, their excellent top line usually draws the most attention. This season, however, they also have secondary scoring worth mentioning. Matt Duchene got off to a rough start with his new team but all that is in the past. Duchene has 12 points in the last ten games and his plus/minus reads +5 over the same stretch. Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin have a similar trend going on. Dallas is a defensively excellent team that also has plenty of offensive power.
The return of Vasilevsky
The Tampa Bay Lightning received good news last week with Andrei Vasilevsky returning to goal. During Vasilevsky’s rehabilitation, backup Jonas Johansson did what was necessary to keep his team in the playoff picture. From now on, Johansson will only see a limited number of starts. The difference in Tampa between their starter and backup is the largest in the series.
The Lightning’s style of play is also ruthless to their starting goaltender. All the Tampa’s best players are purely “offense first” type of guys. Obviously, that translates into fast and offensive gameplay on average. Luckily for Tampa, their core is still performing at a high level. That group is led by Nikita Kucherov, who is playing a crazy season with 39 points in 23 games. However, the Bolts won’t have any playoff success unless they find more offense behind their top four forwards.
Razor thin edge in overs
For an afternoon game, we have an exceptionally high-level match. Both sides have some of the NHL’s elite players in all positions. Tampa Bay is more dependent on the performances of its top players. Dallas’ advantage is based on depth, better defensive structure, and home advantage.
Dallas will win the game roughly six times out of ten, which is also where the team odds currently stand. We do get a one-unit bet for over 6.5 goals with OT and shootout included, which is +105 on Unibet. I have the over as a coinflip on this line, so anything starting with a plus sign will do. The edge is razor thin but enough for a small entertainment bet for a match that’s probably one of the best of Saturday’s slate.
Tip: Over 6.5 Inc. OT & Shootout @ +105
Units: 1/10
The match will start on 12/2/2023 at 2:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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