Playing for the second time within a day, Vancouver faces a tough challenge in Calgary.
Flames’ offense non-existent
The Calgary Flames started the week with a win in Montreal. The win was only the fifth of the season, which falls far short of the pre-season expectations. Their early season struggles have been a surprise to me at least.
In terms of expected goals, the first half of the fall has gone reasonably well. Calgary is on the better side of the critical 50 percent mark, both 5v5 and in all situations. The offense simply isn’t contributing the way it should.
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The Flames have about ten goals less than expected. Nazem Kadri is the team’s top scorer with nine points. Jonathan Huberdeau still hasn’t found his game in Calgary, and Elias Lindholm has also had a slow start. However, we are talking about high-class players here. The inefficiency we’ve seen so far is unlikely to continue throughout the season.
Triple lead in the scoring charts
The Vancouver Canucks’ early season has been practically a mirror image of tonight’s opponent. The Canucks have marched from one win to another even with average performances. They have scored an average of 4.3 goals per game, about a goal above expected.
In the scoring charts, Vancouver is rocking a triple lead with Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson tied at 26 points. The red-hot sticks have wreaked havoc, especially on the power play. The Canucks have an enviable 33.3 percent efficiency with the man advantage. For the Flames, the same stat is 8.0 percent.
While Calgary will most likely improve their current position, it’s just as easy to see Vancouver regressing from its current pace. Vancouver’s xG numbers point to an average team, not a powerhouse as you would think looking at the standings. What’s more, fatigue also plays a role in tonight’s match. Calgary rested yesterday, while Vancouver played a game that went into overtime.
It’s Cowtown all the way
The Canucks played Thatcher Demko yesterday, so backup Casey DeSmith is likely to start today. From the home side, Jacob Markstrom gets a chance to tease his former club. Neither team has injuries that significantly affect performance.
Vancouver’s early season winning streak looks like something of a bubble. After I calculate the effects of rest and home ice advantage, I have Calgary winning the match more than six times out of ten. Unibet has the Flames as -122 favorites, which is amazing value. We are going for the full ten units here, hoping for some Cowtown magic.
Tip: Calgary Flames Moneyline @ -122
Units: 10/10
The match will start on 11/16/2023 at 9:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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