The fall of the Oilers is taking a turn for the better based on advanced statistics.
Seattle needs more from Beniers
The Kraken picked up an away win over their last spring’s playoff nemesis, Colorado, on Thursday. It’s been a rather slow start for the Kraken who are still fifth in their division anyway. Another wild card route to the playoffs is realistic for this team. However, it requires more output from the team’s young players.
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Especially Matty Beniers has struggled heavily in his sophomore season. He only has one goal in fourteen games and an ugly -14 in the plus/minus column. In addition to Beniers shaking off his sophomore slump, the Kraken are hoping for a breakthrough from Shane Wright. The fourth pick of the 2021 draft earned a promotion to the lineup after solid play in the American league and some injuries to Seattle’s roster. Brandon Tanev and Andre Burakovsky are certainly out while Jordan Eberle is day-to-day after injuring himself in Wednesday’s practice.
Oilers much better than their point total
The Edmonton Oilers’ losing streak has been the biggest surprise of the season so far. Despite being one of the Stanley Cup favorites, the Oilers have a meager five points after Thursday’s defeat in San Jose. That is just as many as the Sharks have.
Day by day, the pressure is mounting around head coach Jay Woodcroft. The thing about NHL coaches is they rarely hide behind advanced statistics when faced with poor results. In this case, you really should look behind the results.
After all, the Oilers have been a superior team in terms of expected goals for the first month. Normally, a 5v5 xG of 58 percent will result in wins even for a team without a single player close to the level of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. In Edmonton, however, things aren’t working out in scoring any more than in goaltending. Jack Campbell already paid the price for the latter as the Oilers put him on waivers after a dreadful start to the season. Right now, the pressure is high, but this team will reverse its course based on the underlying statistics.
Looking for the Oilers to get rewarded
For an Oilers offense struggling with inefficiency, the Kraken are a fitting opponent. The home team’s goaltending has been mostly mediocre throughout the organization’s short existence. Of course, the Oilers have also struggled on this area, but Stuart Skinner was fantastic last season.
The statistics strongly advocate an end to Edmonton’s plight. The odds, on the other hand, reflect the results we’ve seen in the opening weeks. The Oilers are +138 in regulation and that is simply too high. I’m expecting Edmonton to get back in the win column in regulation about 45 percent of the time. There is some value in backing the visitors, so let’s go for a three-unit bet to call it a week.
Tip: Edmonton Oilers in regulation @ +138
Units: 3/10
The match will be played on 11/11/2023 at 10 PM EDT.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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