Our focus is on totals as the Bruins take on the Islanders at TD Garden.
Boston off to a stunning start
Boston have picked up where they left off in last season’s record-breaking regular season. Surprisingly, the mega-scale departures of the summer have not been reflected in the points accumulation at all. The Bruins lead the Eastern Conference with a whopping 21 points after 12 games.
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After some light scratching on the surface, it appears Boston may not be as superior as the standings suggest. Slightly above 52 percent share of expected goals is good but far from domination. At the same time, it’s good to remember that a skillful team should perform a little better than their expected goals thanks to a few top individuals.
One of those pivotal players is sidelined as Charlie McAvoy serves the final match of his four-game suspension. The defense will also be missing Matt Grzelcyk and possibly Derek Forbort. Forward Morgan Geekie hurt himself in the game against Dallas and will also miss this one. As a result of all these absences from the Bruins’ lineup, the Islanders are more likely than usual to break into high danger scoring chances.
Mid-table Islanders
The New York Islanders lost their lead against Minnesota on Tuesday, eventually losing in regular time. There was a silver lining in the defeat though. Key defenseman Adam Pelech returned to action and Scott Mayfield, who was questionable before the game, was also in the lineup. Instead, Bo Horvat was ruled out at the last minute. The number one center will be a game-time decision again today.
In many ways, the Islanders are a paragon of mediocrity. However, they do have a few powerful weapons with which to challenge the Cup favorites such as the Bruins. Horvat and especially Brock Nelson are effective shooters who don’t need a whole lot to score. At the same time, the Islanders enjoy some of the best goaltending in the league thanks to their reliable Russian tandem. Number one goalie Ilya Sorokin, who rested on Tuesday, is likely to get the start against Boston.
Let’s go for goals
Boston’s absences change the set-up so that the Islanders have about a 50 percent chance of getting at least a point. At the time of writing, Boston would be a better pick on the team side with +102 for the home win in regulation. But that is super thin, simply not enough for a tip.
The totals are a different story. This game is projected to be a low-scoring encounter, which is understandable given the team profiles and top goaltending we’re likely to witness. Even so, anything above even money for over 5.5 is usually high enough in today’s NHL. This game is no exception, and the +105 available on Unibet for O5.5 will make today’s pick for three units.
Tip: Over 5.5 @ +105
Units: 3/10
The match will be played on 11/9/2023 at 7 PM EDT.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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