The young and fast New Jersey Devils have most of the advantages in Friday night’s rival match.
Same old Islanders
It all looks quite familiar to anyone who has followed NHL hockey in the past few seasons. The Islanders have started the season by grinding out two wins by scores of 3-2 against the Sabres and 1-0 against the Coyotes. Both games were also very low scoring in terms of expected goals with 4.18 and 4.38 total xG, respectively. The Islanders aim to clear their way to the playoffs with solid defense and especially by having the goaltending advantage most nights. Ilya Sorokin is one of the best goalies in the league, and Semyon Varlamov is one of the most consistent backups out there.
It’s the same old story with weaknesses as well. The offense operates with a mediocre group led by elite finisher Brock Nelson. Of the core group in the offense, only Mathew Barzal (26) and Bo Horvat (28) are still waiting for their 30th birthday. On defense, the age structure is better, and there’s more depth than up front. The Islanders might end up in this game without the reliable Scott Mayfield, who is marked as day-to-day for now.
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Devils only missing a top goalie
The New Jersey Devils are built completely different from today’s opponent. While the Islanders’ identity is built entirely through defense, the Devils have all the tools for fast and efficient attacking style of hockey. They have scored ten goals in the first three games, although top players Nico Hischier, Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer are still without a single point.
The age structure of the team is close to optimal, and there is plenty of both top expertise and depth in both defense and offense. Unlike the Islanders, the Devils don’t have a top goalie to lean on. Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid form a decent tandem that, at best, can even be enough to win the championship. However, the Devils lack any goalie advantages when compared to either rival in the New York area.
Interesting value in the Devils
The Devils are a significantly better team in other areas except in goal. What’s more, the Islanders don’t have quite the usual home ice advantage in a derby with plenty of supporters in attendance from both sides. The Devils are reasonably clear favorites who should deliver a regulation win roughly 47 percent of the time, meaning that anything north of +113 is interesting from a betting perspective.
Unibet has the Devils as +125 favorites in regulation. The away team’s odds have dropped, but there’s still some edge available. Betting around third of your max bet would be ideal given these odds.
Tip: New Jersey Devils in regulation @ +125
Units: 3/10
The match will start on 10/20/2023 at 7:30 PM EDT.
The odds are from the time of publication of this article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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