Out of the huge 15-game Black Friday slate, one of the most interesting matchups presents the returning Leafs.
Blackhawks lacking offensive threats
Chicago’s starter Petr Mrazek was pulled on Wednesday after a horrible performance in Columbus. After the Blue Jackets scored their fifth goal, it was Arvid Soderblom’s turn to finish the game. The final score of 7–3 did not leave much to explain on the visiting side.
It’s been a tough fall, and not even Connor Bedard’s efficient start to his NHL career has saved Chicago from losing streaks. The offense simply lacks any threat whenever Bedard sits on the bench. Taylor Hall’s early-season injuries have kept the second-best forward sidelined for seven games already. Hall is day-to-day and could return to action as early as Friday.
Nylander dominated in his home country
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ trip to Sweden went as well as possible. Almost like from a perfect script, the Leafs were fueled to wins by their Swedish elite forward William Nylander. His combined five-point effort in two games brought Nylander’s total for the season to 27 points.
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Time difference and strains of traveling can play a role in the first post-trip game. In addition, the Leafs won’t make it to Chicago with their best lineup. Timothy Liljegren, a solid D-man of their regular lineup, is certain to be sidelined.
Liljegren may not be the only defenseman missing as John Klingberg also missed both games of the Global Series. However, Klingberg has done his team more harm than good in Toronto. Klingberg has started two-thirds of his 5v5 shifts in the offensive zone. Nevertheless, with the Swede on the ice, Toronto has a miserable 42% in expected goals five-on-five.
Let’s show trust in Toronto’s recovery
The Blackhawks are one of the worst teams in the NHL, while the Leafs are perennial Cup favorites. Therefore, there is no doubt about the favorite, even when playing in Chicago. Jet lag and traveling fatigue raise some questions about Toronto’s performance. Still, the odds are simply good enough to back the visitors.
Toronto is -132 to win in regulation, an event that will occur almost six out of ten times. I recommend a slightly smaller bet size than we would normally use with such an edge. My estimation has more margin of error than usual due to Toronto’s strenuous travel schedule.
Tip: Toronto Maple Leafs in regulation @ -132
Units: 3/10
The match will start on 11/24/2023 at 2:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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