Monday’s only game is almost a coin toss between the Sens and Preds. The Senators have some unlocked potential if they only could get some decent goaltending to support their offensive threats.
Ottawa’s goalies struggling
The approaching All-Star break comes at a mentally important time for Ottawa. It has been a hugely disappointing season in terms of results, with the Senators showing an 18-25-2 record. After this game and Wednesday’s game in Detroit, the team will be able to gather strength for the final 35-game stretch of the regular season.
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The Senators have been disappointing specifically in terms of results, not so much if you look at their game. Just based on expected goals, this should be a pretty good team. They have a solid 51.52 xGF%. That number would be high enough to challenge for playoffs with just average goaltending.
In Ottawa, goaltending has completely fallen apart. Opponents are getting an advantage of almost .7 goals per game if you compare goals scored against goals expected. Anton Forsberg is still injured, so Joonas Korpisalo will probably tend the twine tonight.
Saros brings advantage to Predators
The Nashville Predators are one of six teams in the Western Conference that will decide the fate of wild card spots. The Preds’ front office would have been satisfied with the current position had they been offered this at the start of the season. The team is mediocre just like Ottawa. The difference is how much more effectively the Preds have been able to fulfil their potential.
Goalie advantage is significant for the Preds in this game. Even on a slightly worse day, Juuse Saros is average in the NHL and, at his best, one of the elites in his position. Saros’ season has been marked by more mediocre performances than before, but the Preds are still hanging on to the playoff battle.
Most of the praise belongs to Roman Josi’s dominance on the blueline and Filip Forsberg’s strong season on offense. Nashville won’t have any remarkable success without some trade deadline acquisitions, but the Predators are unlikely to seriously pursue a deep playoff run with this core.
Small investment for Ottawa
There is nothing too tricky going on with the lineups. Ottawa may be missing Travis Hamonic from their blueline, but he doesn’t exactly tip the scale one way or the other. Nashville is operating with a healthy roster.
Ottawa is a much better team than their current ranking suggests and just needs better goaltending. Nashville’s advantages are mostly limited to the goalie matchup. Ottawa is a slight favorite in my estimation, while Unibet has this game as a coinflip. Let’s pick Ottawa to win in regulation at +145 with a small investment before retreating to the All-Star break. Next week we’ll be back with some new tips!
Tip: Ottawa Senators in regulation @ +145
Units: 2/10
The match will start on 1/29/2024 at 7:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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