Ottawa won’t be making the playoffs this season, while Colorado is again one of the Cup favorites. Today, the Sens gain extra advantages from rest and expected lineups.
Still waiting for Senators’ breakthrough
The Ottawa Senators were already supposed to be challenging for a playoff berth this season. The Sens office has been slowly putting together a group that is starting to look like a playoff team on defense. The Sens expected Joonas Korpisalo, who had a great stint in Los Angeles, to take over the starter’s role from Anton Forsberg. Ottawa would finally have a winning goalie to support their defense.
Much to the Senators’ chagrin, Korpisalo’s game has resembled his worst efforts in Columbus more than his brief success in L.A. Forsberg hasn’t been much better either. As a duo, the Ottawa goalies have roughly -0.5 goals saved above expected per game. No team fights for the playoffs with such poor goaltending.
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The leaking of the defensive end has obscured the successes of many individuals. Tim Stützle is on PPG pace, and Claude Giroux, the team’s oldest player at 36, is almost at the same pace. Brady Tkachuk is sitting on 18 goals and likely to surpass his last season’s record of 35 goals. Ridly Greig is playing his first full season in the NHL and has received some top line responsibilities. The Sens have some quality on offense, although Josh Norris may be sidelined due to injury.
Schedule and lineup worries for the Avs
The Avalanche lost in regulation yesterday in Montreal. Alexandar Georgiev played yesterday, so the number one goalie is more likely than usual to rest today. The health situation is poor in the Avs’ goalie department. Therefore, resting Georgiev would mean a start for the organization’s fourth choice down the depth chart, Justus Annunen.
Regardless of who gets the nod for the Avs, this is going to be a tougher game for Colorado than you might think. A third game in four days is always a bad place to be in.
The lineup situation isn’t optimal either. Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin are out from the offense and defense is still missing Bowen Byram. Lehkonen could play during the current road trip, possibly even today. That would be great news for the Avs, who are currently depending too much on the magic of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.
Decent chance for Ottawa to surprise
Colorado is one of the favorites to win the Cup, while Ottawa will not see playoff action this season. This is the basic premise between these two teams, but it does not tell the whole truth about probabilities. A more rested and almost healthy Senators couldn’t be in a better position to upset one of the league’s top teams.
The Avs are just slight favorites to get back in the win column. Ottawa in regulation looks like the best pick with +180 available on Unibet. My breakeven line for this tip is +160 and I recommend a bet size of three units.
Tip: Ottawa Senators in regulation @ +180
Units: 3/10
The match will start on 1/16/2024 at 7:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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