It’s going to be a long winter both in Montreal and in Buffalo. The clash of two letdown teams offers some serious value on the visiting side.
Rebuild stagnant in Montreal
Canadiens fans are still waiting for the next step in the rebuild. Montreal has 37 points after 37 games. Not awful, like last season’s 68-point total. Still, the Canadiens need something of a miracle to make it to playoffs.
Just looking at expected goals, there’s nothing convincing about this team. Montreal ranks in the bottom fourth in the league with xG percentages around 46%. Considering the overall level of the team, goaltending has been a strength for them. Both Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault have provided slightly above average goaltending. That really is all you can ask for, at least after a large sample size.
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Montreal lacks both top expertise and depth. The offense relies heavily on Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki in the current lineup situation. The curse of last season has carried into this season as injury woes have been a problem again. Several forwards are out and have been for quite some time now. The Canadiens have likely adjusted to the situation, so there’s only so much we can subtract from them in this situation.
Long winter ahead in Buffalo
Things are even worse for Buffalo, with the Sabres’ table showing 34 points after 38 games. A few injuries to key players, inefficiency in offense and poor goaltending have been the main ingredients of the bitter-tasting buffalo stew. Right now, the lineup situation is good, with only Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo injured. Neither has any significant impact on the estimate.
Based on last season, I was expecting more from Buffalo. With all its flaws, the team has some real firepower if the core players perform at their level. However, Dylan Cozens and Tage Thompson have fallen far short of their best. Luckily for Buffalo, Thompson may be warming up to his usual level based on previous games. The towering center’s stats in the last five games show three goals with three assists.
Backing Buffalo with OT insurance
Montreal is higher in the standings, but I see no winning elements in the way the Canadiens are playing. Even on an individual level, the edges belong to Buffalo, apart from goalies. Lineup situation also favors the road team.
The best way to back Buffalo is to include some insurance for overtime. Unibet has the Sabres as -115 road favorites, which is much higher than the -140 I have for them. This bet has high expected value and it will also cash close to six times out of ten. Both these factors result in a more sizeable bet than usual.
Tip: Buffalo Sabres Moneyline @ -115
Units: 8/10
The match will start on 1/4/2024 at 7:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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