Panthers against Penguins is Friday’s main attraction both from a betting and entertainment perspective. Our focus is once again on totals and high scoring expectations.
Florida’s top line still on fire
Florida won 5-4 against Dallas on Wednesday in a game where we had Dallas and over 6.5. The latter bet delivered a nice profit with seven units. Dallas played a pretty good game, creating more than four expected goals, but just couldn’t survive against Florida’s top line.
On Wednesday, familiar names made their way to the scoresheet again. Sam Reinhart, playing the best season of his career, picked up a goal and two assists while Aleksander Barkov had a goal and an assist. Evan Rodrigues’ four-point game completed an excellent night for the Panthers’ top line.
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The Panthers have improved their defensive play this season, resulting in good old firewagon hockey becoming less common. However, there is always potential for overs in Florida’s games, an example of which we saw on Wednesday. Their top 6 on offense is lethal, even with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk having yet to reach their best level this season.
Pengs need more depth
Since their winning streak in early November, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been in trouble. Since that winning streak, the Pengs have only three wins in eleven games. The difficult phase has aligned with Evgeny Malkin’s reduced offensive output. Malkin has just four points in the last 11 games, while in the first 14 games, the legendary center scored 17.
Malkin’s weaker-than-usual stretch has highlighted the Pengs’ biggest problem: there is virtually no secondary scoring coming from the bottom 6. The Penguins are extremely dependent on their top two lines. Occasionally that doesn’t matter, since those lines can still turn games around on good nights.
The defense, on the other hand, excels on puck-moving abilities. As a result, the Penguins have been one of the best teams in the fall in terms of expected goals for (3.38 per game).
Time for another over
Florida’s start to the season has clearly been more convincing, and at home, the Panthers deserve nearly 60 percent favorite status. My estimation is in line with the odds at the time of writing, so let’s forget about team bets for now.
As for totals, it’s time to go for lots of goals for the second time in a row in Florida’s game. Over 6.5 with overtime and shootout included is a massive -106 on Unibet. Those are amazing odds compared to the -133 I would lay for this pick. There’s significant edge, and this is also a bet that should cash often. Therefore, I suggest a much bigger bet than usual.
Tip: Over 6.5 Inc. OT & Shootout @ -106
Units: 8/10
The match will start on 12/8/2023 at 7:00 PM EST.
The odds are from the time of publication of the article and are subject to change.
Esa Kostet
X: @konekostet
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Register and Bet $25 on any match (min odds +100). Win or lose, you’ll get $100 in bonus bets!
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